Will the butterflies take off?

Saturday is the day of the Maui Butterfly Effect and the question now is what kind of wind and waves can the girls expect. Right now it's looking like gusty NE wind and big-ish NNE waves.   Here's the latest marine statement:

Marine
A small craft advisory remains up for all Hawaiian coastal waters due to a combination of strong and gusty northerly winds and large seas. These potentially hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through Saturday night.

A high surf advisory has been issued for rough and choppy surf along east facing shores due to a combination of a new north northeast swell and the locally generated wind waves. The buoys located northeast of the Big Island, 51000 and 51100, are indicating significant wave heights of 10 to 11 ft with a dominant wave period of 11 sec from due north. The mokapu point buoy near windward Oahu is already indicating a a significant wave height of near 9 ft with a dominant wave period of 10 seconds from an azimuth of 20 degrees, or a north northeast direction. Surf should remain elevated along the affected shore lines into Saturday night. Note that although the surf is expected to remain below the high surf advisory threshold along north facing shores of the islands, it will still be at elevated levels.

The north northeast swell may also lead to the development of moderate harbor surges and large breaking waves in harbor entrances tonight and Saturday at Hilo and Kahului harbors. Therefore, a marine weather statement has been issued for these areas describing these potential threats.

Sounds like it could be a little rough getting out of Hookipa.  Keep those wings crossed.  I know that Julia is looking forward to this.  Speaking of, she had a great session today playing in the weird wave with Nick, Jeff, and Val (the "hot" crew).  She was very inspired by Nick's performance the other day. I stayed mostly in lowers - the wind was dead onshore which was very strange going in and out.  I had to go parallel to the incoming waves, then jump over each one as soon as there was an opening. Coming in was almost an entirely up the line deal, unless you wanted to end up way below "al kiter" beach.

The weather remains a bit "interesting".  A very late season cold front came through today.  Another bit of info from the NWS...

The out of season cool air moving down the island chain appears to have already broken one record. The maximum temperature at Honolulu international airport was only 74 degrees so far today. The previous record low maximum temperature for April 16 at the airport was 77 degrees, which previously occurred on this date in 1949 and 1962. The continuation of the advection of cool air into the state may mean additional temperature records could potentially be broken this weekend.

Hopefully we've seen the last of that, though late next week could be another spell of showery, light wind,  and cool weather.  The good news is a larger NW swell is predicted for late next week as well...

In the northern hemisphere, models show the jet stream shifting southward in the northwest and central north Pacific, which should lead to above average surf from WNW to N for the remainder of April. Models suggest a marginally high NW episode next Thursday.

And waves will also be headed toward south beaches...

This would allow a long duration of winds at gale to storm-force speeds with the head of the fetch to within 3500 nm out. That should spell high surf for Hawaii starting as early as 4/25, lasting several days from 180-200 degrees.

Alrighty, gonna end this with some pics from last years BE. Cheers!